The NCAA Tournament’s opening round presents a fascinating contrast in styles as the Michigan Wolverines face the Iowa State Cyclones. This matchup at Purcell Pavilion in South Bend, IN, promises to be a battle of interior strength versus defensive intensity. Let’s delve into the key aspects of this contest.
Matchup Overview:
- Date: Wednesday, March 19
- Time: 11:30 AM ET
- Location: Purcell Pavilion, South Bend, IN
- Broadcast: ESPNU
- Spread: Iowa State -4.5
- Total: O/U 136.5
Team Profiles and Statistical Analysis:
‣Michigan Wolverines:
✶Michigan’s strength lies in its interior presence, relying on strong post play and offensive rebounding.
✶Offensive Efficiency: Moderate.
✶Defensive Efficiency: Solid, particularly in the paint.
✶Key Stats: 69.8 PPG, 43.5% FG, moderate turnover percentage.
✶They have had a solid season, with a mix of strong wins, and some inconsistent games.
✶They had a path to the tournament that showed their strength against physical teams.
‣Iowa State Cyclones:
✶Iowa State is known for its relentless defensive pressure, forcing turnovers and disrupting opponents’ offensive flow.
✶Offensive Efficiency: Balanced, with a capable perimeter game.
✶Defensive Efficiency: Top-tier, with a high turnover rate.
✶Key Stats: 71.2 PPG, 34.8% 3PT, low opponent PPG (59.2).
✶Iowa state had a strong showing in the big 12, showing they can compete against top level teams.
✶Iowa states recent performance has been very strong, with a high win percentage over their last ten games.
Key Factors:
‣Interior Battle:
✶Michigan’s ability to control the paint and dominate the boards will be crucial. Audi Crooks’ presence for Iowa State will be a significant factor.
‣Defensive Intensity:
✶Iowa State’s defensive pressure and ability to force turnovers will test Michigan’s ball handlers.
‣Three-Point Shooting:
✶Iowa State’s perimeter shooting could be a decisive factor, especially against Michigan’s perimeter defense.
‣Tempo:
✶Iowa state will likely try to push a fast pace, and create transition opportunities. Michigan will try to slow the pace, and play a half court style of game.
‣Bench Depth:
✶Analysis of the bench for each team, and how much production each team gets from their second unit, will be important.
‣Coaching:
✶The coaching styles of each team, and how well each coach can adjust to the in game situations, will be a key factor.
Players to Watch:
‣Michigan: Laila Phelia:
✶Michigan’s primary scoring threat. Her performance against Iowa State’s defense will be pivotal.
✶She is a strong driver, but can be inconsistent from the three point line.
‣Iowa State: Audi Crooks:
✶Iowa State’s dominant post player. Her ability to control the paint will be a major factor.
✶She dominates in the post, but can be vulnerable against quick defenders.
Betting Analysis:
🔅Spread: Iowa State -4.5:
✶Iowa State’s defensive intensity and ability to force turnovers give them the edge. They should be able to control the tempo and wear down Michigan. Consider that if Michigan controls the rebounding game, and limits turn overs, they have a strong chance to cover the spread.
🔅Total: Over 136.5:
🔅Player Props:
‣Laila Phelia (Michigan) Over 15.5 Points.
‣Audi Crooks (Iowa State) Over 7.5 Rebounds.
‣Iowa State Team Total Over 70.5.
🔅Final Prediction:
✶Iowa State’s defensive pressure and perimeter play will be the difference.
✶Final Score: Iowa State 74, Michigan 66.
Final Thoughts
Michigan’s strength is in the paint, but Iowa State’s defensive pressure and perimeter scoring should give them the edge. If the Cyclones force turnovers and control tempo, they’ll cover and advance. We’re rolling with Iowa State -4.5 as the best bet. Who you got winning this morning? Drop your thoughts and comments below 👇🏾
