📍 Matchup: #5 Kansas State Wildcats (28-7) vs. #1 USC Trojans (30-3)
📅 Date: March 29, 2025
🕐 Time: 8:00 PM ET
📍 Location: Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena – Spokane, WA
📺 TV: ESPN
💰 Spread: USC -1.5 | O/U 140.5
🔮 ESPN Predictor: USC 60.0% Win Probability
🔥 Game Preview
The USC Trojans face a significant challenge in their Sweet 16 matchup against the Kansas State Wildcats. The Trojans will be without their star player, JuJu Watkins, who suffered a season-ending ACL injury during the second round of the NCAA Tournament. Watkins’ absence leaves a substantial void in USC’s lineup, as she was the nation’s fifth-leading scorer and a key contributor in their tournament run.
Can USC overcome Watkins’ absence to advance, or will Kansas State capitalize on this opportunity? Let’s delve into the details.
📊 Head-to-Head Matchup
✶Last Meeting: N/A (First-ever meeting in NCAA Tournament)
✶Series History: First matchup between the two teams
✶ Kansas State’s Tournament Path:
–1st Round: Def. Montana State 78-60
–2nd Round: Def. Louisville 65-61
✶ USC’s Tournament Path:
–1st Round: Def. Mississippi Valley State 92-45
–2nd Round: Def. Mississippi State 74-68
🏀 Key 🔑 Takeaways
✶Kansas State: The Wildcats have demonstrated resilience and depth, with a senior-dominated roster that has stepped up in critical moments. Their experience could be pivotal in this matchup.
✶USC: The Trojans’ dynamic offense, led by the remaining roster, will need new leaders to emerge in Watkins’ absence. Players like Kiki Iriafen are expected to shoulder more responsibility.
🔥 Key Matchups to Watch
1️⃣ Kiki Iriafen (USC) vs. Kansas State’s Defense
✶Iriafen has been a standout performer for USC, and with Watkins out, her role becomes even more crucial. Kansas State’s defense will focus on limiting her impact.
2️⃣ Kansas State’s Experience vs. USC’s Resilience
✶Kansas State’s seasoned players bring invaluable experience, while USC’s ability to adapt without Watkins will be tested.
3️⃣ Three-Point Shooting Efficiency
✶Both teams have capable shooters. The team that can effectively stretch the defense and convert from beyond the arc may gain a significant advantage.
📈 Betting Trends & Stats
✅ USC is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games.
✅ Kansas State has gone OVER the total in 4 of their last 5 games.
✅ USC has covered the spread in 22 of their 35 games this season.
✅ Kansas State has 19 wins in 32 games against the spread this season.
💰 Best Bets
🔹 Spread: Kansas State +1.5
🔅Given USC’s adjustment to Watkins’ absence, Kansas State’s experience and momentum may lead them to cover the spread.
🔹 Total: Under 140.5
🔅Both teams may focus on defense, leading to a potentially lower-scoring game.
🔹 Player Prop: Kiki Iriafen Over 31.5 Points + Rebounds
🔅With increased responsibility, Iriafen is likely to exceed this combined points and rebounds figure.
🔮 Prediction & Final Score
The absence of JuJu Watkins significantly impacts USC’s championship aspirations. Kansas State’s experience and cohesion give them an edge in this matchup. While USC has talent, they may struggle without their star player.
💡 Final Score Prediction:
🔵 Kansas State 75
🟠 USC 70
Final Thoughts 💭
With JuJu Watkins sidelined, USC will need to find a way to rally and perform at a high level. Kansas State’s depth and experience could prove crucial, and they have an opportunity to take advantage of USC’s vulnerabilities. Expect a competitive game, but Kansas State may just pull off the upset.
🏀 Betting Lean: Kansas State +1.5 | Under 140.5
Who do you think will advance to the Elite Eight? 🤔 Share your predictions below! ⬇️
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