The ACC Women’s Basketball Tournament final is set, and it’s shaping up to be a battle between Duke’s elite defense and NC State’s explosive offense. With a championship on the line, let’s dive into the key factors, historic trends, players to watch, and potential player props for this matchup.
🔅 How They Got Here
‣Duke (21-10, 12-6 ACC): The Blue Devils stunned No. 6 Notre Dame in the semifinals, using suffocating defense to pull off a 61-56 upset. Their ability to force turnovers (16 against Notre Dame) and limit three-point shooting makes them a tough opponent.
‣NC State (27-5, 14-4 ACC): The Wolfpack have been dominant, winning 14 of their last 15 games. They took down Virginia Tech in the semifinals behind a huge performance from Aziaha James, who dropped 20 points.
🔸 Historic Trends
‣NC State has won three of the last four meetings between these teams, including a 77-62 win earlier this season.
‣Duke has historically performed well in the ACC Tournament, but their last title came in 2013.
‣NC State is seeking its first ACC Tournament title since 2022 after falling short last year.
➰ Key Matchups
‣Duke’s Defense vs. NC State’s Offense:
Duke allows just 55.8 PPG (best in the ACC) and held Notre Dame to 37.5% shooting in the semis. NC State averages 77.1 PPG (2nd in ACC) and shoots 46% from the field. Their ability to score against Duke’s pressure will be the key factor.
‣Aziaha James (NC State) vs. Duke’s Perimeter Defense:
-James is averaging 16.4 PPG and has been lights out in the tournament. Duke forced Notre Dame’s star guards into 8 combined turnovers last game—can they do the same to James?
🎯 Players to Watch & Potential Props
‣NC State:
-Aziaha James (G) – O/U 17.5 Points: The Wolfpack star has cleared this in three straight games. Against Duke’s defense, it’ll be a challenge.
-Zoe Brooks (G) – O/U 2.5 Assists: Brooks is a key playmaker. If Duke pressures James, she could be in a facilitator role.
‣Duke:
-Oluchi Okananwa (F) – O/U 12.5 Points: She led Duke with 14 points vs. Notre Dame and will need to score inside.
-Ashlon Jackson (G) – O/U 1.5 Threes: Duke’s best perimeter shooter—if they get open looks, she’ll need to knock them down.
🔮 Final Thoughts
Duke’s defense is elite, but NC State has the firepower to break through. If Duke can slow the tempo and force turnovers, they have a real shot at the upset. However, if James and Brooks control the game, the Wolfpack could be cutting down the nets.
🔥 Betting Lean: NC State +2.5 | Under 135.5 (if Duke controls the pace)
