📅 Game Details:
‣ Matchup: (3) UConn vs. (1) USC
‣ 🏟 Venue: MVP Arena – Albany, NY
‣ ⏰ Tip-Off: 9:00 PM ET
‣ 📺 TV: ESPN
‣ 📊 Spread: UConn -14.5
‣ 📈 Total: 135.5
📊 Head-to-Head Matchup
‣ Last Meeting: UConn 73, USC 57 (Nov 24, 2023)
‣ Series History: UConn leads 3-0
🏀 Tournament Path
‣ UConn:
✶ 1st Round: Def. Jackson State 86-64
✶ 2nd Round: Def. Syracuse 72-64
✶ Sweet 16: Def. Duke 53-45
‣ USC:
✶ 1st Round: Def. Texas A&M 73-55
✶ 2nd Round: Def. Kansas 73-55
✶ Sweet 16: Def. Baylor 74-70
🔥 Key 🔑 Matchups to Watch
1️⃣ Paige Bueckers (UConn) vs. McKenzie Forbes (USC)
‣ Bueckers has been UConn’s heart and soul, averaging 21.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 3.9 APG in the tournament.
‣ Forbes has stepped up for USC with 16.7 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 38.9% 3PT in March Madness.
‣ Edge: UConn – Bueckers is an elite scorer and playmaker.
2️⃣ UConn’s Defense vs. USC’s Interior Play
‣ UConn allows just 58.1 PPG, ranking top 10 in defensive efficiency.
‣ USC relies heavily on inside scoring and rebounding, but without JuJu Watkins, their offense lacks explosiveness.
‣ Edge: UConn – They can clog the paint and force tough shots.
3️⃣ Three-Point Battle
‣ UConn shoots 36.5% from deep, but USC defends the perimeter well, holding teams to 31.4% 3PT.
‣ The Huskies will need Azzi Fudd and Nika Mühl to knock down perimeter shots.
‣ Edge: UConn – They have more reliable shooters.
📈 Betting Trends & Stats
✅ UConn is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games.
✅ USC has hit the OVER in 5 of their last 7 games.
✅ UConn is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Elite Eight appearances.
✅ USC is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 as an underdog.
💰 Best Bets
‣ UConn -14.5 ✶ UConn’s defense is elite, and without JuJu Watkins, USC could struggle to keep up.
‣ Full Game Under 135.5 ✶ UConn controls the pace, and USC is missing their top scorer.
‣ Paige Bueckers Over 21.5 Points ✶ She’s the best player on the floor and has hit this number in 5 straight. *No. 4 on UConn’s all-time scoring list (2,375 career points), surpassing Katie Lou Samuelson (2,342) and Tina Charles (2,346). She’s 27 points away from passing Napheesa Collier (2,401)*
🔮 Prediction & Final Score
UConn 72, USC 55
‣ UConn’s defensive pressure and experience give them the edge. USC will fight, but without Watkins, it’s a tough task to keep pace.
💭 Final Thoughts
UConn is built for these moments. Paige Bueckers is playing at an elite level, and the Huskies’ defense should be too much for USC to handle. Without JuJu Watkins, USC lacks the offensive firepower to compete for a full 40 minutes. Look for UConn to wear them down and cover the spread.
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