📍 Matchup: #2 Texas (30-4) vs. #3 Tennessee (27-7)
📅 Date: March 29, 2025
🕐 Time: 3:30 PM EST
📍 Location: Legacy Arena – Birmingham, AL
📺 TV: ESPN, ABC, ESPN+
💰 Spread: Texas -8.5 | O/U 142.5
🔮 ESPN Predictor: Texas 78% Win Probability
🔥 Game Preview
Two powerhouses collide in this Sweet 16 battle as Tennessee and Texas go head-to-head for a spot in the Elite Eight. Both teams have been dominant all season, but Texas comes in as the No. 2 seed and a clear favorite.
Can Tennessee pull off the upset, or will Texas continue its championship run? Let’s break it all down.
📊 Head-to-Head Matchup
‣ Last Meeting: Texas 80, Tennessee 72 (Dec 9, 2023)
‣ Series History: Texas leads 6-5
✶ Tennessee’s Tournament Path:
‣ 1st Round: Def. Middle Tennessee 74-58
‣ 2nd Round: Def. Virginia Tech 69-65
✶ Texas’ Tournament Path:
‣ 1st Round: Def. Drexel 83-52
‣ 2nd Round: Def. Alabama 75-64
🔥 Key 🔐 Takeaways from the Last Meeting
‣ Texas pulled away in the fourth quarter, outscoring Tennessee 24-14.
‣ Madison Booker led the Longhorns with 23 points and 6 assists.
‣ Jewel Spear was Tennessee’s top scorer with 18 points.
‣ Texas dominated the rebounding battle 42-33, leading to extra possessions.
🔥 Key 🔑 Matchups to Watch
✶ 1️⃣ Madison Booker (Texas) vs. Tennessee’s Perimeter Defense
‣ Booker runs Texas’ offense, averaging 16.9 PPG and 5.2 APG.
‣ Tennessee must find a way to disrupt her playmaking and shot creation.
‣ X-Factor: If Booker gets into a rhythm, Texas’ offense becomes tough to stop.
✶ 2️⃣ Tennessee’s Frontcourt vs. Aaliyah Moore (Texas)
‣ Moore is Texas’ inside presence, averaging 12.7 PPG and 7.3 RPG.
‣ Tennessee’s post defense has been inconsistent—if Moore establishes position, it could be a long night for the Lady Vols.
‣ Battle on the Boards: Texas won the rebounding battle last time, and Tennessee must step up to avoid second-chance points.
✶ 3️⃣ Three-Point Shooting Efficiency
‣ Texas shoots 36% from deep, while Tennessee allows opponents to shoot 33%.
‣ Jewel Spear (Tennessee) and Shaylee Gonzales (Texas) are key shooters who can swing momentum.
‣ Who Gets Hot? If one team finds rhythm from deep, it could be the difference-
💰 Best Bets
🔹 Spread: Texas -8.5
🔅Texas has elite ball movement and defensive intensity, making them tough to stop.
🔅Tennessee struggles against pressure, which Texas will exploit.
💭If Texas controls the tempo, they should win and cover comfortably.
🔹 Total: Under 142.5
🔅Tennessee’s defense has tightened up in the tournament, allowing just 65.5 PPG.
🔅Both teams rank top 30 in defensive efficiency, suggesting a slower-paced game.
💭Expect a gritty, physical battle, keeping the score under.
🔹 Player Props to Consider
✅ Madison Booker (Texas) Over 17.5 Points
🔅She’s the most reliable scorer for Texas and thrives in big moments.
🔅Tennessee struggled defending versatile wings this season.
✅ Jewel Spear (Tennessee) Over 2.5 Threes
🔅Spear is Tennessee’s top perimeter threat and will need to knock down shots to keep them in this game. She’s shooting 38% from deep and has hit 3+ threes in four of her last six games.
🔮 Prediction & Final Score
Texas is too deep, too fast, and too efficient offensively for Tennessee to keep up. If the Longhorns force turnovers and execute in transition, they’ll control the game from start to finish. Tennessee’s only path to an upset is a dominant rebounding performance and a slow pace.
💡 Final Score Prediction:
🟠 Texas 75
⚪ Tennessee 64
🏀 Betting Lean: Texas First Half -4.5 | Under 142.5
Final Thoughts 💭
Tennessee has the scoring talent to keep this game competitive, but Texas’ defense, rebounding, and the playmaking of Madison Booker give them the upper hand. If the Longhorns control the tempo and win the battle on the boards again, they should cover and advance to the Elite Eight.
📌 Best Bet: Texas -8.5 | First half Under 72.5
🏀 Who you got? Drop your predictions below! ⬇️
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