📍 Matchup: #3 Notre Dame (28-6) vs. #7 TCU (25-9)
📅 Date: March 29, 2025
🕐 Time: 1:00 PM EST
📍 Location: Legacy Arena – Birmingham, AL
📺 TV: ABC, Disney+, ESPN+
💰 Spread: Notre Dame -7.5 | O/U 144.5
🔮 ESPN Predictor: Notre Dame 80% Win Probability
🔥 Game Preview
March Madness is heating up as Notre Dame and TCU face off in the Sweet 16, with both teams looking to punch their ticket to the Elite Eight. TCU stunned the Irish earlier this season with a 76-68 comeback win at the Cayman Islands Classic, but Notre Dame is coming into this one with revenge on their mind.
Will Notre Dame’s experience prevail, or will TCU’s Cinderella run continue? Let’s break it down.
📊 Head-to-Head Matchup
‣ Last Meeting: TCU 76, Notre Dame 68 (Nov 29, 2024)
‣ Series History: TCU leads 1-0
✶ Notre Dame’s Tournament Path:
‣ 1st Round: Def. Fairfield 82-51
‣ 2nd Round: Def. Ole Miss 75-61
✶ TCU’s Tournament Path:
‣ 1st Round: Def. Michigan 73-64
‣ 2nd Round: Def. Indiana 80-74
🔥 Key 🔑 Takeaways from the Last Meeting
‣ TCU erased a 14-point deficit in the 4th quarter to win.
‣ Sedona Prince dominated with 20 points, 20 rebounds, and 8 blocks.
‣ Hailey Van Lith took over in the second half, scoring 19 of her 21 points.
‣ Notre Dame’s Hannah Hidalgo led all scorers with 27 points.
🔥 Key Matchups to Watch
1️⃣ Hannah Hidalgo (Notre Dame) vs. Hailey Van Lith (TCU)
‣ Hidalgo is Notre Dame’s motor, averaging 21.2 PPG, 5.4 APG, and 4.2 SPG.
‣ Van Lith is TCU’s top playmaker and clutch scorer, averaging 17.8 PPG, 4.9 RPG, and 3.7 APG.
‣ Battle of the Guards: Hidalgo’s defensive pressure vs. Van Lith’s ability to score in big moments.
2️⃣ Notre Dame’s Defense vs. TCU
‣ Prince dominated the first matchup with a 20-20 double-double.
‣ Notre Dame’s frontcourt needs to contain her inside presence and rebounding dominance.
‣ X-Factor: If Sedona Prince controls the paint again, TCU has a serious edge.
3️⃣ Three-Point Shooting Battle
‣ Notre Dame shoots 37% from three, but TCU’s defense holds opponents to 30% from deep.
‣ Notre Dame needs to hit outside shots early to stretch TCU’s defense.
📈 Betting Trends & Stats
✅ Notre Dame is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games.
✅ TCU has hit the OVER in 4 of its last 5 games.
✅ Notre Dame is 9-2 in its last 11 NCAA Tournament games.
✅ TCU has won 8 of its last 10 games as an underdog.
💰 Best Bets
🔹 Spread: Notre Dame -7.5
🔅The Irish are peaking at the right time, winning 7 of their last 8 games convincingly.
🔅TCU’s comeback win earlier this season was an outlier, as Notre Dame controlled most of that game.
🔅Hidalgo’s aggressive defense should make life difficult for Van Lith, limiting TCU’s offensive flow.
🔹 Total: Under 144.5
🔅Both teams rank in the top 50 defensively, with Notre Dame allowing just 59.8 PPG.
🔅TCU has slowed down its pace in the tournament, playing more methodically in their wins.
💭Expect Notre Dame’s defense to dictate the game, keeping scoring lower than expected.
🔹 Player Props to Consider
✅ Hannah Hidalgo (Notre Dame) Over 21.5 Points
🔅She put up 27 points against TCU earlier this season and has dominated all tournament long.
🔅With Notre Dame looking for revenge, expect Hidalgo to attack early and often.
✅ Sedona Prince (TCU) Over 9.5 Rebounds
🔅She grabbed 20 rebounds in their first meeting and has been a force inside.
🔅Notre Dame lacks elite size, giving her another opportunity to clean the glass.
🔮 Prediction & Final Score
Notre Dame has tournament experience, depth, and revenge on their side, but TCU has already beaten them onceand has the momentum of a team playing its best basketball at the right time.
If Notre Dame can contain Sedona Prince and control the tempo, they should pull this one out. However, if TCU turns this into a physical, grind-it-out game, they have a real shot at another upset.
💡 Final Score Prediction:
🔵 Notre Dame 74
🟣 TCU 64
🏀 Betting Lean: Notre Dame -7.5 | Under 144.5
🔮 Final Thoughts
Notre Dame’s balance on both ends gives them a strong edge in this matchup. TCU has been impressive, but the Irish’s superior defense and depth should prove too much to handle. Expect Notre Dame to control the tempo and cover the spread on their way to the Elite Eight.
📌 Best Bet: Notre Dame -3.5 First half spread | First half Under 68.5 points
🏀 Who you got? Drop your predictions below! ⬇️
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