If you were in the Sports Juice Lounge yesterday, you know we were pouring up winners—our Unders went 4-1! Fading the public’s love for overs paid off, and we’re running it back with another carefully crafted selection of Undersfor tonight.
Why are we riding the Under train again? Simple. Public bettors love overs, but sharp bettors know that inflated lines, tough matchups, and game script advantages often create value on the other side.
So let’s break down tonight’s best fades and why these numbers are worth sipping on.
Tonight’s Under Specials 🍹
🔹 De’Aaron Fox (SAS) – Under 34.5 PRA
Fox has been balling, but this matchup isn’t exactly a green light for another explosive stat line. The Spurs may be a bottom-tier defense, but they allow some of the fewest assists in the league to opposing point guards, limiting Fox’s PRA upside. Combine that with the potential for a blowout, and we’re fading an inflated number here.
🔹 Trey Murphy III (NOP) – Under 19.5 Points
Murphy is a flamethrower when his shot is falling, but 19.5 is a tall task against a team that does a great job closing out on three-point shooters. If his volume isn’t there early, this number could be a struggle to reach, especially with so many mouths to feed in the Pelicans’ offense.
🔹 Scottie Barnes (TOR) – Under 20.5 Points
Barnes has been consistent, but this matchup is a grinder. He’s going up against a defense that can throw multiple bodies at him, and the pace of this game doesn’t scream high-scoring affair. We’re trusting the data here—his scoring production might not hit 21 tonight.
🔹 Luka Dončić (LAL) – Under 29.5 Points
Luka is a walking bucket, but this line is a bit too rich given the matchup. The Lakers have done a solid job slowing down elite scorers in recent games, and if LeBron and AD show up defensively, Luka might have to work extra hard for his buckets. Fatigue and game flow could also factor in here, making this under an appealing spot.
Why We Love These Unders 💰
- Fading inflated lines – Sportsbooks bake in public bias toward overs.
- Matchup-based edges – Tough defenses, game pace, and player usage all play a role.
- Situational betting – Blowouts, game flow, and defensive schemes create sharp spots.
Unders may not always be the flashiest bets, but they’re often the sharpest. And after cashing 4-1 last night, we’re back for more.
Lock in, trust the process, and let’s keep The Under Pour rolling!
-JU
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